Stock Alert – But Not What You Might Think
Before we cover the full analysis we make a quick alert here that U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) has seen its stock price move at a deteriorated level. We’ll go through the details below — but that’s the lede — the stock has been unusally quiet. If there was a post it note to summarize the stock movement in the last 30-days it would likely read “quiet time… too quiet?” The HV20 is 28.25% verus the HV20 of the S&P 500 at 6.43%.
Another bit to this alert of quiet time, which we cover in the article, is that while the historical volatility may be a deteriorated level, the real question that needs to be answered for option traders is not if the HV20 is low, but rather if the implied volatility that is priced for the next 30-days accuratley reflects what we’re about to see in the stock for the next month.
To jump forward and examine if owning or shorting options has been a positive trade in U.S. Physical Therapy Inc, you can go here: Getting serious about option trading.
This is a proprietary realized volatility rating created by Capital Market Laboratories (CMLviz) based on a large number of data interactions for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) . We examine
the little used gem of daily stock volatility over a 20-day and 30-day trading period, as well as comparisons to the last year and the actual stock returns over the last three- and six-months
and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices.
Option trading isn’t about luck — this three minute video will change your trading life forever: Option Trading and Truth
As a heads up, in the “Why This Matters” section at the end of this article on U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) , we’re going to take a step back and show really clearly
that there is actually a lot less “luck” in successful option trading than most people are aware of. This idea of an “option trading expert” is vastly over complicated
so those with the information advantage can continue to profit at the expense of the rest.
But before that, let’s turn back to USPH. Here are the exact steps that led us to this rating, and whether it’s a risk alert or a holding pattern.
Stock volatility using proprietary measures has hit a deteriorated level.
While stocks with USPH’s profile see a short-term quiet period, this is also one of those times
when a shake out volatility move could be on the horizon.
Let’s take a deep dive into some institutional level volatility measures for U.S. Physical Therapy Inc (NYSE:USPH) .
U.S. Physical Therapy Inc Stock Performance
USPH is down -6.9% over the last three months and up +2.5% over the last six months. The stock price is up +27.3% over the last year. The current stock price is $64.
USPH Step 1: Stock Returns