MannKind Under A Buck – New Script Numbers Remain Below 300 – MannKind Corporation (NASDAQ:MNKD)

Before I delve into the events of the week I must say that the Afrezza script numbers for the week ending April 14th were actually better than I thought they would be. The caveat to that statement is that scripts are still well below where they need to be. MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD) has had a tough week, and that is reflected in the share price dipping below $1 per share. Earlier this week I had stated that I felt MannKind stock was in danger of dipping below $1 by April 28th. It happened much more quickly.

The most recent Afrezza sales data has weekly scripts at just over 280. The low script number has been a problem for many months, and the lack of improvement or ability to gain traction has brought a predictable reaction in the stock price. With sales so stagnant, a new excuse mantra has emerged. That mantra is, “It is not about the number of scripts, but the number of cartridges”. Passionate longs on the stock are not as receptive as they once were. My thought is that it is not about scripts or cartridges, but about REVENUE! More cartridges means more expensive. More expensive when insurance is not offering great coverage is a big problem. How much does it cost to treat a patient with Afrezza vs. the more mainstream diabetes solutions is the big question. Once you answer that, the next question is whether patients are willing to pay that premium.

Chart Source – Spencer Osborne

From a quarter over quarter perspective Afrezza sales are actually starting off in positive territory. That should be easy when you consider that Q1 of 2017 was the worst full sales quarter for script counts since the launch of the product more than two years ago. With the most recent data, Afrezza script counts are 17.04% better than what was delivered in Q1. The difference in aggregate total is that there have been 76 more scripts sold in the first two weeks of Q2 than were sold in the first two weeks of Q1.

Chart Source – Spencer Osborne

On a year over year basis the comparison is still negative. Sales in Q2 of 2017 are pacing 24% behind what was delivered in Q2 of 2016. As I have stated, I expect to see improvement in this metric because we are comparing an active MannKind sales force this year to a Sanofi (NYSE:SNY) sales force last year that was phasing out of Afrezza. The sales this week were high enough to avoid dipping below the sales levels accomplished 2 years ago.

Chart Source – Spencer Osborne

The cash situation at MannKind remains desperate. The chart below assesses estimated cash as of April 14, 2017. Next week’s cash burn will be over $6 million because MannKind renegotiated some debt earlier in the week. That negotiation traded about three weeks worth of cash for about 6 million shares of stock. Even though the dilution was only a bit over 5%, the prospects of losing 5% of the company for a few additional weeks is not very promising. As of April 14th I estimate that MannKind has $37.6 million in cash. I estimate that the company will run out of cash…

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